Monday, July 27, 2015

IPv6 deployments growing steadily though not exponentially (yet)

The percentage of users of google's websites accessing via IPv6 has reached 8% for the first time last week, essentially doubling up the percentage from only a bit more than a year ago. It was then, a year ago that I had last blogged about predicting future IPv6 adoption trends based on "curve fitting" historical measurements. At that time, the predictions for the end of 2014 indicated 6.2% for the exponential growth model, while the polynomial model predicted 5.6%. The actual measurement was 5.7%.

As illustrated in the graph below with curve fits based on the most recent data, the exponential curve, the top (green) curve is certainly the most ambitious as it was last year. It predicts the percentage of IPv6 users accessing google's sites at 11.4% by the end of this year and over 25% by the end of next. Meanwhile the polynomial curve fits are more conservative predicting 8-9% by the end of this year and 12-15% by the end of next.

While IPv6 adoption growth hasn't "gone exponential" just yet, could the exhaustion of IPv4 space most recently within the ARIN region  (mostly N. America), following RIPE (Europe) and APNIC (Asia) serve as the catalyst to drive IPv6 deployment growth exponentially? Further requirements for IP address space must by necessity be filled by IPv6 address space, unless an IPv4 address exchange can be brokered.

But even if no additional IP space is needed, the population of IPv6 capable Internet users is clearly growing. Are they able to access your website? Where do you stand with IPv6 deployment? You can make your opinions known by completing our annual IPv6 survey.   They survey takes only five minutes to complete and you can register to win a $100 Visa gift card, the winner of which will be selected randomly among participants. Hurry, the survey closes at the end of July.

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