Predicting IPv6 Growth
Upon hearing the news that Google’s measurement of IPv6 users hitting their websites hit 3% of total users, having just surpassed 2% in September, 2013, I became less skeptical of the exponential growth predictions for IPv6. Under the assumption that people around the world use google and it is atop Alexa’s list of top websites, it would seem such a measurement provides data that could be loosely projected to the Internet at large. To explore this uptick in hits, I sampled some data points from Google’s statistics site in an attempt to create a future projection. Figure 1: A pair of curve fittings for Google IPv6 users data In my first attempt at “curve fitting,” I considered quarterly data points going back to early 2009 when google started measuring IPv6 visitors. Applying curve fitting to these data points, I created the the chart of Figure 1, with sample data points represented as blue diamonds. Applying an exponential curve to this data set yields the more gradually slopin...